"Allocating 0.25% of GDP by the European Countries Could Help Ukraine to Win the War": Interview with Hanno Pevkur, Minister of Defense of Estonia

Estonia has a plan for Ukraine's victory.

Estonia is one of the most constant countries in supporting Ukraine, which not only provides the necessary assistance but also persistently tries to intensify the efforts of other Ukraine’s allies. For instance, the Estonian Ministry of Defense came up with a long-term strategy — a document for Western countries that contains detailed calculations of how much money the allies should invest to ensure Ukraine's victory over Russia in the coming years. And it is only about 0.25% of the GDP of the countries.

The Minister of Defense of Estonia, Hanno Pevkur, told in an exclusive interview with "Telegraf" more about what the Strategy includes, why there should be no "red lines" in the war, and how the Baltic countries counter Russian threats.

€120 billion for Ukraine’s victory

— At the end of 2023, Estonia presented "A Military Strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's Defeat." What was the process of making such a practical document? And why is defeating Russia by 2026 a real prospect for Ukraine?

— We want you to win in the war not in 2026, but as soon as possible. This is the starting point. Estonia came out with this Strategy because it was clear that we need to have the initiative and we need to give the perspective to the Western countries on how to help Ukraine. We saw in the last two years that Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and some others did a lot. But there is still a lack of assistance.

Of course, we wanted to be realistic. It was very easy to say "Let's everyone do as much as Estonia has done" but we understand that it's unfortunately unrealistic to achieve in Europe. And this is why we thought, "We have given Ukraine in two years around €100 billion of military aid, and if we double it and do €120 billion annually, then this should be enough for Ukraine to get the victory." We started to calculate and then saw that these 120 billion euros are around 0.25% of the allies' GDP. So we made this offer.

And also we committed ourselves immediately and our government made the decision that we will allocate at least 0.25% of our GDP annually for the next four years to help Ukraine. If necessary, we are ready to do even more and go further. But we really do hope that by that time and even sooner the war will be over. At the same time, we made the decision to send Ukraine the next military aid package with anti-tank cannons, thousands of 155mm artillery shells, gas masks, some special guns, etc.

We have allocated only this year 0.25% of our GDP. And we have the right to say to others that it can be done if there is a political willingness.

— Was the Strategy presented to Ukraine and among allies of our country? What was the reaction?

— The reaction on the political level is very good. And everyone is saying that it's a very good paper and initiative. But it's not only the words that matter. It's also important to make decisions. As I've said many times already, instead of saying we are standing with Ukraine "as long as it takes" we have to say "as much as it takes". And for that, we have to start by allocating 0.25% of GDP. Countries have to make this commitment on the political level to invest money or equipment in Ukraine in that amount.

We see some positive reactions. Germany has made a decision to allocate to Ukraine more than €7 billion. Norway has made a decision for a long-term strategy. The Netherlands is in the process of that. So we see that countries are starting to do that. But there are still many states that have not allocated even 0.1% of their GDP in two years. This is the challenge to push all the allies to make this decision because, at the end of the day, everyone understands that you are fighting not only for Ukraine. You are fighting for all of us.

There is only one "red line"

— At the same time, many Western countries still have so-called "red lines" in supporting Ukraine. Why do partner states still have some fears about whether to provide Ukraine with some type of weapons or not?

— I believe it's more a political question than a practical one. The "red lines" are more for the domestic use.

Putin has said "When you do this or that, this is a "red line". Ok, thanks for the "red lines". Long-range missiles were the "red line". This capability was provided to Ukraine and nothing happened. People have to understand that there are no "red lines" in the war. The only one is the freedom and independence that you can lose.

— There are ongoing discussions regarding the possibility of deployment of foreign troops to Ukraine, which Putin also declared the "red line". What is Estonia's position on this matter? Is Estonia ready to send its soldiers to Ukraine if necessary?

— We have to take a look at the message from French President Emmanuel Macron. It was mostly focused not on the ground forces, but "boots on the ground". And "boots on the ground", by his definition, was about the training, maintenance, and things like that, not about going to the front line.

I believe this is the common understanding in Europe that, of course, we have to help Ukraine as much as we can. But NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said very clearly that the Alliance is not at war with Russia.

Regarding the repairs or maintenance of the equipment, and training of the Ukrainian military, these are definitely something where we are ready to go further. And I believe that we all have to be ready to do so. The Ukrainian Army needs more training. It was one of the topics raised during the latest Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting (Ramstein format – ed.). At the moment, Europe is training around 40,000 to 60,000 troops, and Great Britain is doing the same. Estonia is also conducting training. We did it in our country at the beginning and now we moved to do it together with Great Britain as part of the "Interflex" training mission. We have bigger formations, and it's more important to conduct already battalion-level training.

"Interflex" is training 40,000 to 60,000 troops as well as Europe. My message is that we need to increase that to the training of 100,000 Ukrainian military in both cases. We have to send a message to the Kremlin that the allies are ready to train 200,000 troops this year. And the question is where it will be done. This is rather a technical question because we know that if there is a need for some special training, it can be done also in Ukraine. We are ready to move forward, but, of course, we also need to have other allies with us.

— When the Ukrainian military travel to another country for training, it takes time, and it's also logistically complicated. So stationing training missions in Ukraine would change the situation.

— But also we have to understand that here in Ukraine these trainings are more vulnerable. Today we saw that the missiles went to the west of Ukraine (the interview was recorded after the Russian missile attack on Ukraine on the 21st of March – ed.). So even if we do the training in the west of the country, these training camps are quite vulnerable, and they will be targets for Russians. The one thing is, yes, logistically it is better to train Ukrainians in Ukraine, but on the other hand, it's safer to train them 400 kilometers to the west in Poland.

To invest in the defense industry

— We see that Russia has fully switched to a wartime economy. In Munich, the German finance minister said that Germany gives 2% of the GDP to defense, and it is a great result for them. But Russia gives at least 6%, so won’t it be too late for the Western countries to do more? Does Estonia have any plans to develop production lines inside the country to cover its own needs as well as Ukraine's needs?

— Firstly, regarding the production and increasing that. The beauty and the pain of democracy is that you have regulations. In Russia, they do not have regulations. So when Putin says that the bread factory will start producing the ammunition, then the bread factory will start producing the ammunition. When in Europe someone says that we change the bread factory to the ammunition one, then it takes a year or two to be ready with the paperwork. Ecological footprint assessment and other issues like that have to be settled before.

I see that also in Estonia. I started the process of the ammunition plant already half a year ago, and we had to go to the government to have the special planning for that. So even the special planning, which is much quicker than the normal planning, takes more than one year, because of the environmental assessments, etc. On the other hand, when there is a political will, you can do things quicker. And especially in the countries where you have production already.

It is important to underline that the first precondition to do more is to have more money. For instance, we are investing in defense €3.2 billion this year. And it’s crucial to invest money precisely it in the defense industry. Because from each euro we are giving to defense, 55 cents go to new capabilities, directly to the industry. In many countries, when they have new money for defense, it goes to the administrative costs, salaries, and so on, not to the capabilities.

But regarding the percentages, yes, Russia invests 6%. But their economy is 27 times smaller than the European economy. I will just give you one example. When European countries put 2% of GDP into defense, then we’ll have, by different calculations, 60 to 80 billion more euros than today. When you take the Russian war budget, it's around 100 billion US dollars. So if Europe invests this 2%, additional money will be close to the same amount that Russia is investing totally.

Our economies are 27 times bigger than the Russian economy. And this is why even this 0.25% of GDP could help Ukraine to win this war.

"When you want to live in peace, prepare for the war"

— According to the latest data from the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, the Kremlin is preparing for a long war and at the same time is continuing its military reform. There are even concerns about a possible confrontation between Russia and NATO. Which Russian threats is Estonia facing now, and how is the country countering them?

— We don't have any illusions that there will be a democracy in Russia. We clearly understand that Russia is and will be hostile towards its neighbor states. This is why we will invest at least 3% of GDP in defense. This is why we also agreed with the Baltic countries to establish the Baltic Defense Line. This is why we've always said that it's not only about NATO Article 5 but also Article 3, which says that first and foremost you have to do everything in your power to defend yourself.

But we also have to say that we are not afraid of Russia. We are taking very objectively that Russia will increase its presence along the border with the Baltic states, that Moscow will increase the number of its military to 1.5 million personnel after the war with Ukraine is over, and that it will increase the number of different kinds of weapons systems in our neighborhood.

This is not a subjective estimation, but a fact. And we have to address this fact and have deterrence measures. We have new regional plans in NATO and we know that if there is a real threat which will be on our soil, then these plans are ready to defend every meter of Estonia and NATO's territory.

— At various closed meetings, Estonia is called Putin's first potential target if he dares to invade the Baltic states, and analysts express different scenarios about how much this "operation" could take. How do you assess the current threat to the Baltic countries, and what are the best ways to protect them?

— It is very important to understand that if Putin attacks no matter what country, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, or Bulgaria, then he attacks NATO. So that means that he will go into war with NATO. His goal here in Ukraine is not only to annex regions or to take Ukraine. His goal is also to humiliate the West and to show that the West collectively didn't manage to do something. And this is the same goal when he even thinks about attacking any of the NATO countries. He, of course, hopes that Alliance will not react.

But I'm sure that NATO will react. And NATO will defend every inch or every meter of allied territory. So this is why we have to address this threat. We have to be ready for that. We have to do everything in our hands to prevent it. As they say, "When you want to live in peace, prepare for the war."

— What can you say about the position of the potential U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump? Once he said that the United States may exit from NATO. How such a situation might change the real power of NATO and the situation in Europe in general?

— Normally I don't like to take the crystal ball out and start speculating. But even when Trump says something like that, this is mainly addressed to the domestic public. Because I'm 100% sure that as much as Europe needs the U.S., the U.S. needs Europe. We have been together in Afghanistan. We are together with the U.S. at the moment in Iraq. We are safeguarding the peace in different parts of the world.

Trump is very right in the sense that every European country has to invest at least 2% of its GDP in defense. We've also said that and even more. We've said that countries need to invest at least 2.5%, maybe even 3%. But the message from NATO has always been the same: we are stronger together.